EUR/USD Falls to Three-Week Low at 1.0775 on Strong USD

Quick Look:

The EUR/USD pair is experiencing selling pressure for the second consecutive day, falling to a three-week low during Monday’s Asian session. Spot prices are currently trading around the 1.0775 region. Extending the post-NFP breakdown momentum through the critical 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) makes the pair seem vulnerable. Recent economic data from the USA has significantly influenced this bearish trend, reinforcing the strength of the US Dollar.

Impact of Strong US Employment Report

The recent monthly employment report from the US Labor Department revealed that the US economy added 272,000 jobs in May, far exceeding the anticipated 185,000 and the previous month’s revised figure of 175,000. Additionally, Average Hourly Earnings surpassed consensus estimates, increasing by 4.1% over the 12 months through May, despite a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.0%. This robust employment data has led investors to reassess their expectations for an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Consequently, US Treasury bond yields have remained elevated. The cautious mood in the equity markets has further bolstered the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar. These factors collectively exert downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair, contributing to its recent decline.

Political Uncertainty Weighs on the Euro

On the other side of the Atlantic, the Euro has been undermined by political developments within the Eurozone. An aggregated exit poll indicated that Eurosceptic nationalists made significant gains in the recent European Parliament elections. Furthermore, French President’s decision to call snap elections later this month has increased political uncertainty in France, the Eurozone’s second-largest economy. These factors have favoured Euro bears, adding to the downward momentum of the EUR/USD pair. As a result, the shared currency is currently trading at approximately $1.07494, down 0.43% for the day.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis and Key Levels to Watch

The technical outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains bearish, particularly as it trades below the pivot point of $1.07902. Key levels to monitor on the 4-hour chart include immediate resistance at $1.08280, $1.08641, and $1.09166. On the downside, immediate support levels are found at $1.07234, followed by $1.06898 and $1.06500.

Key technical indicators include the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.08519 and the 200-day EMA at $1.08200. Both of these levels indicate potential resistance zones. Additionally, the pair’s sustained trading below these EMAs reinforces the bearish outlook. This suggests further declines could be on the horizon. However, significant positive momentum could alter this trend.

The EUR/USD pair faces significant downward pressure driven by robust US employment data and heightened political uncertainty within the Eurozone. The strong job market in the US has dampened hopes for a near-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve. It is supporting the US Dollar and weighing heavily on the Euro. Meanwhile, European political developments have added to the Euro’s woes, further contributing to the pair’s decline. As technical indicators point to continued bearishness, traders will closely monitor upcoming economic data and political events for any signs that could alter the current trajectory of the EUR/USD pair.

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